Storm in a teacup

Posted: 11 August 2015 in Uncategorized
Tags: , , , , , , , ,

storm_in_a_teacup_by_kritter5x-d31kwvp

I have to laugh when I read the back and forth about who sneered at whom in the battle over mainstream macroeconomics.

According to Paul Romer, Chicago’s rejection of MIT-style macroeconomics was a defensive reaction to the sarcasm of Robert Solow. Paul Krugman says no; Dornbusch, Fischer, and others at MIT tried to meet Chicago halfway but “Chicago responded with trash talk.”

Really?!

First, is anyone surprised that economists at Chicago and MIT engaged in sarcasm toward each other’s work? That’s what mainstream economists do all the time. They’re dismissive of the work in other academic disciplines. They ridicule radical and heterodox approaches within economics. And, yes, they engage in trash talk about mainstream theories other than their own. All the time. For as long as I’ve been studying economics. And of course even earlier.

Second, we’re going to now explain the pendulum swings of mainstream macroeconomics, back and forth between more Keynesian versions and more neoclassical versions, according to who sneered at whom? There’s a bit more going on here, including developments inside the discipline and events in the world beyond the academy. The trajectory of mainstream macroeconomics both influenced and was influenced by everything else taking place inside and outside the academy (and I doubt trash-talking between schools of thought had a whole helluva lot to do with it).

Modern Economics

source

So, what did take place? Basically (and Greg Mankiw [pdf] is a pretty good guide here, at least once you set aside the silly language of scientists and engineers), mainstream macroeconomics (the blue and yellow bars in the chart above) was invented in the late-1940s/early-1950s as neoclassical economists (like Paul Samuelson and John Hicks) attempted to domesticate Keynesian economics and combine it with neoclassical economics, thus creating what came to be called the “neoclassical synthesis.” (In those days, the teaching of mainstream economics started with macroeconomics, thus reflecting the problems of capitalist instability that culminated in the first Great Depression, and then turned to the supply-and-demand framework of neoclassical microeconomics. These days, it’s the reverse: micro before macro.) Chicago, too, was part of the synthesis, to the extent that Milton Friedman and others spoke the same language, although of course they arrived at very different conclusions: while Paul Samuelson and Co. believed they’d solved the problem of instability, through active fiscal and monetary policies, Friedman and Co. preached the virtues of free markets and the problems created by government intervention. It was the visible hand of government intervention versus the invisible hand of laissez-faire.*

In the mid-1970s, a new approach emerged at Chicago—the so-called rational expectations revolution of Robert Lucas and Thomas Sargent—that is best described as neo-neoclassical macroeconomics. The idea was that, since on average economic agents had expectations that coincided with the “real” values in the economy (akin to the “correct” predictions of econometricians), including the outcomes of any and all economic policies, it was simply impossible to surprise rational people systematically. Therefore, government policy aimed at stabilizing the economy was doomed to failure.

The “new Chicago” economists then developed a whole series of macroeconomic models based on perfect information, rational expectations, and instantaneously market-clearing prices—whereby the only problems came from “exogenous shocks.” MIT (and Berkeley and other departments) responded by focusing on asymmetric information, “sticky” prices, and other market imperfections that might lead capitalist economies to less than full employment. It’s what we now call call “new Keynesian” economics.

Those are the limits of the current orthodoxy—the limits of the kinds of models that can be used and of the policies that should be adopted. They are the limits of the debate within mainstream economics.

And whatever sneering takes place between the two sides is, for those of us who practice a different kind of economics, merely a storm in a teacup.

 

*Here I’m referring only to mainstream macroeconomics. All the other approaches, from the Keynesian and Sraffian economics of Cambridge University through Modern Monetary Theory to Marxian economics, were then and continue to be simply sneered at and ridiculed by both MIT and Chicago.

Comments
  1. Magpie says:

    “Here I’m referring only to mainstream macroeconomics. All the other approaches, from the Keynesian and Sraffian economics of Cambridge University through Modern Monetary Theory to Marxian economics, were then and continue to be simply sneered at and ridiculed by both MIT and Chicago.”

    In all fairness, that’s not exactly true. Marxian economics may not be sneered at by professors working in MMT. To their credit, professors Mitchell and Wray (and perhaps a few others) tend to be quite sympathetic to Marxian economics in some of its versions (think of Monthly Review).

    That definitely does not extend to the young guns of MMT and internet MMTers, which almost to a man are hostiles. The exception I could find is Peter Cooper (a bright Aussie economist).

    It doesn’t extend to the original Keynesians, either.

    What’s more, there is a rather obscure syncretic Austro Keynesian tendency.

    And, at the other hand, Chris Dillow seems to be a neoclassical Marxist: an Analytical Marxist.

  2. […] In other words, mainstream economists debate, often intensely and with no small degree of sneering and sarcasm, the best way of getting markets to operate correctly—but that’s only because they utilize […]

  3. […] In other words, mainstream economists debate, often intensely and with no small degree of sneering and sarcasm, the best way of getting markets to operate correctly—but that’s only because they utilize the […]

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