Numbers of the day

Posted: 11 March 2016 in Uncategorized
Tags: , , , , , , ,

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It’s virtually impossible, at this point, for Bernie Sanders to win enough delegates in the remaining primary contests to beat Hillary Clinton to the Democratic nomination.

However. . .

ChartOfTheDay_699_Preliminary_results_of_the_2012_presidential_election_n

In the midst of all the number-crunching, there is one calculation I haven’t seen mentioned: primary wins that matter. Let’s define “matter” in relation to the states Barack Obama won during the 2012 presidential election.

According to my calculations, of Clinton’s 12 primary wins thus far, only 4 (Iowa, Nevada, Massachusetts, and Virginia) have come in states Obama carried in 2012. Sanders, in contrast, has come out ahead in 9 states, 6 of which are states where Obama was victorious.*

Why are these numbers significant? It’s unlikely the Democratic nominee in 2016 will carry any state Obama did not win in 2012. While it won’t change the final delegate count, one can argue that some wins (in states Obama carried in 2012) are more important than wins elsewhere (e.g., in the Deep South, which the Democratic nominee, regardless of who they are, has little chance of carrying in 2016).

 

*If we consider 2 states toss-ups (Iowa and Massachusetts), and award a half point to each candidate, the difference is even more dramatic: 3 out of 12 for Clinton, 7 of 11 for Sanders.

Comments
  1. […] Now that voters in 33 states have cast their ballots in Democratic primaries, let me update my numbers that matter: […]

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