Now that voters in 33 states have cast their ballots in Democratic primaries, let me update my numbers that matter:
According to my calculations, of Clinton’s 17 primary wins thus far, only 6 have come in states Barack Obama carried in 2012. Sanders, in contrast, has come out ahead in 16 states, 10 of which are states where Obama was victorious.*
If we consider 4 states as toss-ups (Iowa, Nevada, Massachusetts, and Missouri), and award a half point to each candidate, the difference is even more dramatic: 5 out of 16 for Clinton, 11 out of 17 for Sanders.
It’s still virtually impossible for Bernie Sanders to win enough delegates in the remaining primary contests to beat Hillary Clinton to the Democratic nomination. But, based on the numbers that matter, you have to ask, who’s the real Democrat in this campaign?
*As I explained in my previous post, these numbes matter because it’s unlikely the Democratic nominee in 2016 will carry any state Obama did not win in 2012. While it won’t change the final delegate count, one can argue that some wins (in states Obama carried in 2012) are more important than wins elsewhere (e.g., in the Deep South, which the Democratic nominee, regardless of who they are, has little chance of carrying in 2016).