Labor is winning?!

Posted: 10 August 2016 in Uncategorized
Tags: , , , , , ,


Greg Ip would like us to believe that, right now, in labor versus capital, labor is winning.


That’s certainly not the case if we actually look at the official data on the wage share of U.S. national income.* As it turns out, the share of income going to workers has fallen from a high of 51.5 percent (in both 1953 and 1970) to a low of 42.2 percent (in 2013), with a slight uptick to 42.9 percent (in 2015).

Clearly, even with recent increases in real wages, labor has not been winning in its war with capital.

wage share

So, how does Ip get his result, showing very little trend in labor’s share of national income? Well, by changing the facts. First, he subtracts capital depreciation from national income (and calls that, incorrectly, net national income).**

fredgraph (1)

OK, let’s do that—and much the same result as at the top of the post emerges: a long-term decline in the wage share (from 69 percent in 1982 to a low of 60 percent in 2012-14).

That means Ip’s surprising (and ultimately deceptive) result actually relies on his second modification: taking out rental income. Clearly here he is on shakier ground: rental income is mostly another form of the return on capital, distributed not to “households,” but to the owners of most of the buildings and land (both residential and corporate) in the U.S. economy. It’s just another distribution of the surplus to those at the top, which is a key component of both national income and capital’s share.

So, no, labor’s share is not back to where it was prior to the crash of 2007-08. And even if it’s moving in that direction, it’s well below its postwar peaks.

Capital is still winning its war against labor.


*And, remember, my preference is to subtract CEO and other 1-percent “wages” (and add them to capital’s share) to get the real wage share.

**By rights, he should subtract all capital expenditures (not just depreciation) to obtain net national income, that is, new value added. Then, we’d be left with the three components of the infamous Trinity Formula—wages, profit, and rent—all of which are created by the labor of the working-class.

  1. Bruce says:

    Agreed about the “winning” nonsense. But the upturn in labor share, the (tiny and overdue) increase in nominal wage gains, and the falling productivity growth rate (now actually falling productivity) are the established indicators for the end-of-cycle “General Law of Capitalist Accumulation” scenario. Unit labor costs are rising, so the alarm bells are going off in the boardrooms (can’t have that!). The end is coming…

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