Posts Tagged ‘health insurance’

initial claims8

Bullets flyin’, helicopters, police sirens, preachers lying
Genocism, criticism, unemployment, racism. . .
That’s exactly what Hell look like

— Kendrick Lamar, “Heaven & Hell”

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 1.5 million American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. That’s on top of the 42.7 million workers who were laid off during the preceding eleven weeks.

Here is a breakdown of each week:

• week ending on 21 March—3.31 million

• week ending on 28 March—6.87 million

• week ending on 4 April—6.62 million

• week ending on 11 April—5.24 million

• week ending on 18 April—4.44 million

• week ending on 25 April—3.87 million

• week ending on 2 May—3.18 million

• week ending on 9 May—2.69 million

• week ending on 16 May—2.45 million

• week ending on 23 May—2.13 million

• week ending on 30 May—1.88 million

• weeks ending on 6 June—1.54 million

All told, 44.21 million American workers have filed initial unemployment claims during the past three months.

To put that into some kind of perspective, I calculated the initial claims totals for two other relevant 12-week periods: the worst point of the Second Great Depression (encompassing the weeks ending on 17, 24, and 31 January, 7, 14, 21, 28 February, 7, 14, 21, and 28 March, and 4 April 2009) and the weeks immediately preceding the current depression (so, 28 December, 4, 11, 18, and 25 January, 1, 8, 15, 22, and 29 February and 7 and 14 March 2020).

As readers can see in the chart above, the difference is stunning: 7.7 million workers filed initial claims during the worst 12-week period of 2009, 2.6 million from late December to mid-March of this year, and 44.2 million in the past twelve weeks.

Once again, keep in mind, the most recent numbers still don’t include perhaps millions of other American workers, since many states are still addressing backlogs of claims. Masses of workers have been unsuccessful in applying for unemployment insurance because state websites and phone lines are inundated and still, even now, not working correctly.

Moreover, because they’re only initial claims, the numbers also don’t include the 7.1 million American workers who were deemed officially unemployed in early March, before most of the shutdowns started.

According to the most recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of unemployed workers fell by 2.1 million to 21.0 million in May, leading to an official unemployment rate of 13.3 percent—although, by correcting the misclassification of a large number of workers (who were classified as employed but absent from work), the official rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher. Moreover, the surveys on which those data are based only capture those who were unemployed in mid-May.

If we allow for the fact that at least some workers have been forced to have the freedom to return to work in recent months, then the total number of fully unemployed workers is something on the order of 38.9 million.* That would mean an unemployment rate of more than 24.6 percent, which is just below the rate last seen in the first Great Depression (25 percent) and almost two and a half times the highest rate (10 percent) suffered during the Second Great Depression.**

On top of that, we should add in the workers who are involuntarily working part-time jobs—in other words, workers who would like to have full-time jobs but have been forced “for economic reasons” to accept fewer hours. The reserve army of unemployed and underemployed workers then rises to more than 49.54 million—or 31.3 percent of the U.S. labor force.

Moreover, as I argued this past Monday, millions of unemployed workers are not included in this number:

In addition to first-time job-seekers who have unable to find a job (some unknown portion of an estimated 3.8 million high-school graduates, 1 million who graduated with associate’s degrees, and 2 million with bachelor’s degrees), it doesn’t include any of the estimated 8 million undocumented workers who have lost their jobs.

Right now, no one in the White House is offering a real plan for the tens of millions of unemployed and underemployed American workers to be able to pay the rent, purchase health insurance, or get enough to eat.

 

*I used the following, perhaps overly generous, assumptions: 1 in 2 workers who were unemployed in mid-March have been able to find jobs and 2 in 10 workers who filed initial claims in the past eleven weeks have gone back to work.

**At the highest of levels of unemployment following the 2007-08 crash, there were 15.3 million jobless Americans.

initial claims7

Gambling man rolls the dice, workingman pays the bill
It’s still fat and easy up on banker’s hill
Up on banker’s hill, the party’s going strong…
Down here below we’re shackled and drawn

— Bruce Springsteen, “Shackled and Drawn”

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 1.9 million American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. That’s on top of the 40.8 million workers who were laid off during the preceding ten weeks.

Here is a breakdown of each week:

• week ending on 21 March—3.31 million

• week ending on 28 March—6.87 million

• week ending on 4 April—6.62 million

• week ending on 11 April—5.24 million

• week ending on 18 April—4.44 million

• week ending on 25 April—3.87 million

• week ending on 2 May—3.18 million

• week ending on 9 May—2.69 million

• week ending on 16 May—2.45 million

• week ending on 23 May—2.13 million

• week ending on 30 May—1.88 million

All told, 42.65 million American workers have filed initial unemployment claims during the past eleven weeks.

To put that into some kind of perspective, I calculated the initial claims totals for two other relevant 11-week periods: the worst point of the Second Great Depression (encompassing the weeks ending on 24 and 31 January, 7, 14, 21, 28 February, 7, 14, 21, and 28 March, and 4 April 2009) and the weeks immediately preceding the current depression (so, 4, 11, 18, and 25 January, 1, 8, 15, 22, and 29 February and 7 and 14 March 2020).

As readers can see in the chart above, the difference is stunning: 6.5 million workers filed initial claims during the worst 11-week period of 2009, 2.19 million from late January to mid-March of this year, and 42.65 million in the past eleven weeks.

Once again, keep in mind, the most recent numbers still don’t include perhaps millions of other American workers, since many states are still addressing backlogs of claims. Masses of workers have been unsuccessful in applying for unemployment insurance because state websites and phone lines are inundated and still, even now, not working correctly.

Moreover, because they’re only initial claims, the numbers also don’t include the 7.1 million American workers who were deemed officially unemployed in early March, before most of the shutdowns started.

According to the most recent report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (pdf), the number of unemployed workers rose by 15.9 million to 23.1 million in April, leading to an official unemployment rate of 14.7 percent—”the highest rate and the largest over-the-month increase in the history of the series.” But the surveys on which those data are based only capture those who were unemployed in mid-April.

If we allow for the fact that at least some workers have been forced to have the freedom to return to work in recent months, then the total number of fully unemployed workers is something on the order of 36.2 million.* That would mean an unemployment rate of more than 24.1 percent, which is getting closer and closer to the rate last seen in the first Great Depression (25 percent) and almost two and a half times the highest rate (10 percent) suffered during the Second Great Depression.**

On top of that, we should add in the workers who are involuntarily working part-time jobs—in other words, workers who would like to have full-time jobs but have been forced “for economic reasons” to accept fewer hours. The reserve army of unemployed and underemployed workers then rises to more than 48.5 million—or 31 percent of the U.S. labor force.

Moreover, as Patricia Cohen reminds us, millions of unemployed workers are not included in these numbers:

Laid-off workers who have not applied for benefits and those who have left the labor force entirely are not included. Nor are any of the eight million undocumented workers who lost their jobs. They are not eligible for any benefits. Neither are new graduates just entering the labor force.

Right now, no one in the White House is offering a real plan for the tens of millions of unemployed and underemployed American workers to be able to pay the rent, purchase health insurance, or get enough to eat.

 

*I used the following, perhaps overly generous, assumptions: 1 in 2 workers who were unemployed in mid-March have been able to find jobs and 2 in 10 workers who filed initial claims in the past eleven weeks have gone back to work.

**At the highest of levels of unemployment following the 2007-08 crash, there were 15.3 million jobless Americans.

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If there ever was an argument in support of Medicare for All it’s this: despite spending more on health care than any other country, the United States has seen increasing mortality and falling life expectancy for people ages 25 to 64, who should be in the prime of their lives.

A new report published in the Journal of the American Medical Association paints a bleak picture: overall life expectancy in the United States, which had increased for most of the past 60 years, has actually fallen for three consecutive years. But this is not just a recent trend. U.S. life expectancy began to lose pace with other countries in the 1980s, and, by 1998, had declined to a level below the average life expectancy among Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development countries. While life expectancy in these countries has continued to increase, American life expectancy stopped increasing in 2010 and has been actually decreasing since 2014.*

The recent decrease in U.S. life expectancy was largely related to increases in all-cause mortality among young and middle-aged adults, as against other groups (infants, children, and the elderly) for whom mortality rates have declined. For individuals aged 25 to 64 years all-cause mortality rates were in decline in 2000, reached a nadir in 2010, and increased thereafter.

But the roots of the crisis in U.S. life expectancy go back further in time. Midlife mortality rates for a variety of specific causes (e.g., drug overdoses and hypertensive diseases) began increasing earlier. But they weren’t reflected in all-cause mortality trends because they were offset by large, simultaneous reductions in mortality from ischemic heart disease, cancer, HIV infection, motor vehicle injuries, and other leading causes of death. However, increases in cause-specific mortality rates before 2010 slowed the rate at which all-cause mortality decreased (and life expectancy increased) and eventually culminated in a reversal. The end result was that all-cause mortality increased after 2010 (and life expectancy decreased after 2014).

The authors of the report make it clear that deficiencies in the healthcare system explain increased mortality from at least some conditions.

Although the US health care system excels on certain measures, countries with higher life expectancy outperform the United States in providing universal access to health care, removing costs as a barrier to care, care coordination, and amenable mortality.

Radically transforming the way healthcare is financed, such as is proposed in the U.S. Medicare for All Act of 2017 Health Insurance Program, would go a long way to reversing the decline in life expectancy in the United States. It would eliminate the financial barriers to decent healthcare, providing everyone with access to hospitalization, primary and preventative services, prescription drugs, and other services (such as oral health, audiology, and vision services), and so on. 

But, we have to admit, universal health insurance is not by itself going to solve the problem in the United States. One reason, of course, is that one cause of the decrease in life expectancy is the surge in drug overdose deaths that began in the 1990s, which came out of the private, profit-seeking U.S. healthcare industry itself.**

The increasing mortality and falling life expectancy among young and middle-aged Americans were exacerbated by other dimensions of U.S. capitalism. We know, for example, that, since the late 1970s, income inequality widened, surpassing levels in other countries, concurrent with the deepening U.S. health crisis. Moreover, those most vulnerable to the new economy (e.g., adults with limited education and younger men) experienced the largest increases in death rates as did those who worked in areas suffering economic dislocation, such as rural U.S. areas and the industrial Midwest. While the authors admit that the causal links have not been firmly established, they do observe that “Socioeconomic pressures and unstable employment could explain some of the observed increases in mortality spanning multiple causes of death.”

It’s not just a matter of absolute income or net worth. According to the report, the causes of economic despair may be more “nuanced,” stemming from “perceptions and frustrated expectations” within the American working-class. Whatever hope was tied in with the American Dream has been undermined as economic inequality reached obscene levels and intergenerational mobility declined.

Moreover, these potential causes are probably not independent and may, together and in complex ways, shape mortality patterns.

major contributors like smoking, drug abuse, and obesogenic diets are shaped by environmental conditions, psychological distress, and socioeconomic status. The same economic pressures that force patients to forego medical care can also induce stress and unhealthy coping behaviors and can fracture communities.

Americans are faced, then, with an enormous problem: an economic system that, especially in recent decades, has caused mortality to rise and life expectancy to fall among young and middle-age workers; a private healthcare system that has both been inadequate to the task of caring for these people and in, the case of certain classes of pharmaceutical drugs, made the problem worse; and a system of health insurance that has left millions of people without access to healthcare.

Medicare for All represents a real solution to one dimension of the problem. But not to the other two. Unless and until the U.S. economic system (including the way healthcare is provided) is radically transformed, Americans will continue to die much too young.

 

*According to the report, Life expectancy began to advance more slowly in the 1980s and plateaued in 2011. U.S. life expectancy peaked in 2014 and subsequently decreased significantly for 3 consecutive years, reaching 78.6 years in 2017.

**It started with the introduction of OxyContin in 1996; was followed by increased heroin use, often by patients who had become addicted to prescription opioids; and then was subsequently aggravated by the emergence of potent synthetic opioids, which triggered a large post-2013 increase in overdose deaths.

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