The storm clouds on the horizon continue to gather. Economic growth, in the United States and around the world, continues to slow (or, in the case of Europe, to rise barely above zero).
According to Juan Antolin Diaz’s models,
the probability that the economy is now in a state of strong expansion has dropped from 70 per cent in December 2014 to under 40 per cent now. Over the same period, the probability that the economy is in recession has risen from zero to 14 per cent – still low, but not entirely negligible.
So much for capitalism’s much-vaunted recovery. . .