Posts Tagged ‘Obama’

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It’s virtually impossible, at this point, for Bernie Sanders to win enough delegates in the remaining primary contests to beat Hillary Clinton to the Democratic nomination.

However. . .

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In the midst of all the number-crunching, there is one calculation I haven’t seen mentioned: primary wins that matter. Let’s define “matter” in relation to the states Barack Obama won during the 2012 presidential election.

According to my calculations, of Clinton’s 12 primary wins thus far, only 4 (Iowa, Nevada, Massachusetts, and Virginia) have come in states Obama carried in 2012. Sanders, in contrast, has come out ahead in 9 states, 6 of which are states where Obama was victorious.*

Why are these numbers significant? It’s unlikely the Democratic nominee in 2016 will carry any state Obama did not win in 2012. While it won’t change the final delegate count, one can argue that some wins (in states Obama carried in 2012) are more important than wins elsewhere (e.g., in the Deep South, which the Democratic nominee, regardless of who they are, has little chance of carrying in 2016).

 

*If we consider 2 states toss-ups (Iowa and Massachusetts), and award a half point to each candidate, the difference is even more dramatic: 3 out of 12 for Clinton, 7 of 11 for Sanders.

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176173_600 The A-Hole Seat

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Thomas Piketty, author of Capital in the Twenty-First Century, observes that only the older generation is keeping Hillary Clinton in the race, since Bernie Sanders is polling far ahead of Clinton among younger (18-44) voters.

More importantly, Piketty offers a look back to explain the attraction of Sanders’s progressive agenda today.

Reagan was elected in 1980 on a program aiming to restore a mythical capitalism said to have existed in the past.

The culmination of this new program was the tax reform of 1986, which ended half a century of a progressive tax system and lowered the rate applicable to the highest incomes to 28%.

Democrats never truly challenged this choice in the Clinton (1992-2000) and Obama (2008-2016) years, which stabilized the taxation rate at around 40% (two times lower than the average level for the period 1930 to 1980). This triggered an explosion of inequality coupled with incredibly high salaries for those who could get them, as well as a stagnation of revenues for most of America – all of which was accompanied by low growth (at a level still somewhat higher than Europe, mind you, as the old world was mired in other problems).

Reagan also decided to freeze the federal minimum wage level, which from 1980 was slowly but surely eroded by inflation (little more than $7 an hour in 2016, against nearly $11 in 1969). Again, this new political-ideological regime was barely mitigated by the Clinton and Obama years.

Sanders’ success today shows that much of America is tired of rising inequality and these so-called political changes, and intends to revive both a progressive agenda and the American tradition of egalitarianism. Hillary Clinton, who fought to the left of Barack Obama in 2008 on topics such as health insurance, appears today as if she is defending the status quo, just another heiress of the Reagan-Clinton-Obama political regime.

Sanders makes clear he wants to restore progressive taxation and a higher minimum wage ($15 an hour). To this he adds free healthcare and higher education in a country where inequality in access to education has reached unprecedented heights, highlighting a gulf standing between the lives of most Americans, and the soothing meritocratic speeches pronounced by the winners of the system.

Meanwhile, the Republican party sinks into a hyper-nationalist, anti-immigrant and anti-Islam discourse (even though Islam isn’t a great religious force in the country), and a limitless glorification of the fortune amassed by rich white people. The judges appointed under Reagan and Bush have lifted any legal limitation on the influence of private money in politics, which greatly complicates the task of candidates like Sanders.

However, new forms of political mobilization and crowdfunding can prevail and push America into a new political cycle. We are far from gloomy prophecies about the end of history.

The only significant factor missing in Piketty’s analysis is the role of minority voters in relation to the Clinton machine. But that may change, as Sanders and his proposals receive more attention in the weeks and months ahead.

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