Posts Tagged ‘debt’

huck1july

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poverty-ball-and-chain-940px  July 14, 2017

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Sometimes you just have to sit back and admire capitalism’s ingenuity.

It’s able to make profits twice over. First, capitalists know that, when they keep workers’ wages down—even when there’s “full employment”—they can make spectacular profits. And, second, they can make additional profits by loaning money to those same workers, who are desperate to purchase goods and services and send their children to college, thereby financing the demand for the goods and services industrial capitalists need to sell to realize their profits.

Thus, as we can see in the chart at the top of the post, the amount of consumer credit is once again soaring to record highs. In relation to personal income, consumer credit fell after the Great Recession (to just under 20 percent in December 2012)—as households “deleveraged”—and then it began to rise once again, reaching 23.3 percent four years later.

Is there any wonder bank stocks are expected to show profit growth of 6 percent when the sector kicks off second-quarter earnings season later this week?

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Total consumer credit outstanding (which excludes loans secured by real estate, such as mortgages) can be divided into two categories: revolving and nonrevolving credit. Revolving credit (the blue parts of the bars in the chart above) consists of credit card credit and balances outstanding on unsecured revolving lines of credit, while nonrevolving credit (the red portion) comprises secured and unsecured credit for automobiles, durable goods, and higher education.

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Clearly, as workers’ wages have stagnated, both loans on cars and trucks (the dashed line in the chart) and student loans (the dotted line) have been rising dramatically, which have in turn fueled new vehicle sales and increases in tuition at colleges and universities.

As I say, capitalism is an ingenious system—until, of course, the house of cards comes tumbling down.

huck3june

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debt

The latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit (pdf) from the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data showed a substantial increase in aggregate household debt balances in the fourth quarter of 2016 and for the year as a whole. As of 31 December 2016, total household debt stood at $12.58 trillion, an increase of $226 billion (or 1.8 percent) from the third quarter of 2016. Total household debt is now just 0.8 percent ($99 billion) below its third quarter 2008 peak of $12.68 trillion, and 12.8 percent above the second quarter 2013 trough.

That means the debt loads of Americans will likely surpass the previous peak later this year.

Part of the problem is that U.S. workers, whose real wages continue to stagnate, are forced to have the freedom to take on more debt in order to maintain their customary standard of living, for themselves and their families.

delinquent

The other part of the problem is that, while loan delinquency rates are generally declining, the rate for student loans (11.2 percent)—the one form of consumer debt that can’t be erased—is higher than for any other form of consumer debt. Outstanding student loan balances increased by $31 billion, and stood at $1.31 trillion as of 31 December 2016.

And, as Derek Thompson explains, the student-debt crisis is most acute not for the much-cited $100,000-debt stories, but for students whose debt burdens are much smaller, many of whom took on a few thousand dollars in debt and didn’t even get a degree.

This is particularly tragic, because these debt-without-degree adults chased the American dream into a dead end.