Posts Tagged ‘COVID-19’

The pandemic is once again spiraling out of control. Right-wing commentators and political leaders are doing everything they can to stop any kind of effective public-health response and to divert attention from the severity of the pandemic. And liberals? The best they can come up with is “follow the science.”

Jay S. Kaufman, a professor of epidemiology at McGill University, is having none of it. He rejects that simple—and too simplistic—mantra because it “misses the fact that the same social pathology that exacerbates the pandemic also debilitates our scientific response to it.

The problem is, Kaufman pulls his punches and limits the reach of both arguments. He notes that the pandemic itself is “socially patterned” but then he refers only to excess deaths across countries (such as Peru, Bolivia, South Africa and Brazil), which in his view are tied to political turmoil and weak social institutions. What he forgets about or overlooks is the fact that the severity of infections and deaths with countries is closely related to economic inequality and poorly functioning public institutions. In other words, the people who have suffered most from the pandemic are those who are forced to have the freedom to work at jobs and live in communities where they are more likely to be infected by COVID-19 and where adequate medical care is unavailable, either because it is not provided or is financially unattainable.

As for the second argument, that “science itself is a social process,” he’s right to note that “epidemiologists exist like everyone else inside the social forces that shape the pandemic.” But he’s really only referring to the step from “evidence to policy,” to the “politicization of proven interventions” (for example, under the Trump administration), not the process of gathering and analyzing the evidence itself. Thus, he never questions the science itself. Kaufman seems to be uninterested in or incapable of posing questions about what scientists decided were the basic issues to be investigated in terms of the emergence and transmission of the novel coronavirus, especially the ways the pandemic has both revealed and compounded pre-existing inequalities in wealth, income, and race.

The alternative was, in fact, staring him in the face. Kaufman begins his essay by invoking Rudolf Virchow, the Prussian pathologist who, in the winter of 1848, was sent to investigate a typhus epidemic raging in Upper Silesia, in what is now mostly Poland. As Kaufman explains,

After three weeks of meticulous observation of the stricken populace — during which he carefully counted typhus cases and deaths by age, sex, occupation and social class — he returned with a 190-page report that ultimately blamed poverty and social exclusion for the epidemic and deemed it an unnecessary crisis. “I am convinced that if you changed these conditions, the epidemic would not recur,” he wrote.

Today, Virchow is known as the “father of modern pathology” and as the founder of social medicine. He developed the theory of cellular pathology, which laid the conceptual foundation for modern medicine. But he also had a specific notion of medicine, which is today mostly ignored. In his own words:

Medicine is a social science, and politics is nothing else but medicine on a large scale. Medicine, as a social science, as the science of human beings, has the obligation to point out problems and to attempt their theoretical solution: the politician, the practical anthropologist, must find the means for their actual solution. . .Science for its own sake usually means nothing more than science for the sake of the people who happen to be pursuing it. Knowledge which is unable to support action is not genuine—and how unsure is activity without understanding. . .If medicine is to fulfill her great task, then she must enter the political and social life. . .The physicians are the natural attorneys of the poor, and the social problems should largely be solved by them.

Not only did Virchow conclude, based on his research, that poor sanitation, the absence of basic hygiene, lack of education, and near starvation were the root problems of the epidemic in Upper Silesia. According to David M. Reese, “a few weeks after his Silesian expedition, Virchow manned the barricades beside fellow democrats, armed with a rusty sword and an antiquated rifle.” Following on his participation in the revolution of 1848, Virchow continued to be active in politics: he was soon elected representative to a newly formed Prussian diet, “delivering fiery speeches against the royal family”; in the late 1850s, he was elected Berlin City Councillor, an office in which he served for 42 years (“his achievements ranging from improving the city’s sewer and water supply systems to reforming the arrangement of public hospitals” so that all citizens would have access to basic medical care); and he was a founding member of the German Progress Party, the main left-wing party before the rise of the Social Democrats.

The fact is, more than 170 years ago, Virchow established a practice of both scientific social medicine and politically committed scientist that gives lie to the notion of just “follow the science.” The question, then as now, is: which science?

In the midst of a sick society characterized by sick institutions, we need to critically examine both the economic and social institutions that have generated the profoundly unequal effects of the present pandemic as well as the specific ways scientific methods and protocols have been conditioned by those same institutions.

Both the number of initial unemployment claims for unemployment compensation and the number of continued claims for unemployment compensation are once again on the rise, signaling a worsening of the Pandemic Depression.

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 935 thousand American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. While initial unemployment claims remain well below the peak of about seven million in March, they are far higher than pre-pandemic levels of about 200 thousand claims a week.

The number of continued claims for unemployment compensation, while also below its peak, rose from the previous week and was more than 20.6 million American workers—a figure that includes workers receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.* This means that, since the end of April, the number of continued claims has fallen below 20 million only once (and that to 19 million, toward the end of November).

To put this number into further perspective, consider the fact that the highest number of continued claims for unemployment compensation during the Second Great Depression was 6.6 million (at the end of May 2009), and in the week before the Pandemic Depression began there were only 1.6 million continued claims by American workers.

In the meantime, at least 1,074 new coronavirus deaths and 40,607 new cases were reported in the United States yesterday. As of this morning, more than 6.1 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 185.6 thousand have died—more than any other country in the world, which has received barely a mention from anyone in the Trump administration.

According to Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, “We are not moving in the right direction. With the looming expiration of benefits, it’s even more worrisome.”

In the meantime, at least 3,611 new coronavirus deaths and 245,033 new cases were reported in the United States yesterday—two morbid new records. As of this morning, more than 17 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 307,642 have died. That’s more than any other country in the world, a crisis continues to receive barely a mention from anyone in the Trump administration.**

The result will be new waves of business slowdowns and closures, which in turn will mean millions more U.S. workers furloughed and laid off. Widespread inoculations of the U.S. and world populations are still many months off. Therefore, in the absence of a radical change in economic policies and institutions, Americans can expect to see steady streams of both initial unemployment claims and continued claims in the weeks and months ahead.

———

*This is the special program for business owners, the self-employed, independent contractors, and gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.

**The last time I posted a chart of unemployment claims, in early September, some 6.1 million Americans had been infected with the coronavirus and 185.6 thousand had died.

The number of initial unemployment claims for unemployment compensation in the United States fell below one million for only the second time since the beginning of the COVID crisis. But the number of continued claims for unemployment compensation is once again on the rise, signaling a continuation of the Pandemic Depression.

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 881 thousand American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. While initial unemployment claims remain well below the recent peak of about seven million in March, they are far higher than pre-pandemic levels of about 200 thousand claims a week.

The number of continued claims for unemployment compensation, while below its peak, rose from the previous week and was more than 29 million American workers—a figure that includes workers receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.*

To put this number in perspective, consider the fact that the highest number of continued claims for unemployment compensation during the Second Great Depression was 6.6 million (at the end of May 2009), and in the week before the Pandemic Depression began there were only 1.6 million continued claims.

In the meantime, at least 1,074 new coronavirus deaths and 40,607 new cases were reported in the United States yesterday. As of this morning, more than 6.1 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 185.6 thousand have died—more than any other country in the world, which has received barely a mention from anyone in the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, many colleges and universities that have attempted to reopen with students in residence are reporting hundreds of (and, in some cases, more than a thousand) novel coronavirus infections.

The result will be new waves of business slowdowns and closures and schools returning to online teaching, which in turn will mean millions more U.S. workers furloughed and laid off. Unless there is a radical change in economic policies and institutions, Americans can expect to see steady streams of both initial unemployment claims and continued claims in the weeks and months ahead.

———

*This is the special program for business owners, the self-employed, independent contractors, and gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.

The number of initial claims for unemployment compensation in the United States once again surpassed one million—for the 21st time in the past 22 weeks—signaling a continuation of the Pandemic Depression.

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 1 million American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. While initial unemployment claims remain well below the recent peak of about seven million in March, they are far higher than pre-pandemic levels of about 200 thousand claims a week.

The number of continued claims for unemployment compensation has also fallen from its peak but the total from the previous week (the series of continued claims lags initial claims by one week) was still 27 million American workers—a figure that includes workers receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.*

To put this number in perspective, consider the fact that the highest number of continued claims for unemployment compensation during the Second Great Depression was 6.6 million (at the end of May 2009), and in the week before the Pandemic Depression began there were only 1.6 million continued claims.

In the meantime, at least 1,193 new coronavirus deaths and 44,934 new cases were reported in the United States yesterday. As of this morning, more than 5.9 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 179.9 thousand have died—more than any other country in the world, which has received barely a mention during the Republican national convention.

The result will be new waves of business slowdowns and closures, which in turn will mean millions more U.S. workers furloughed and laid off. Unless there is a radical change in economic policies and institutions, Americans can expect to see steady streams of both initial unemployment claims and continued claims in the weeks and months ahead.

———

*This is the special program for business owners, the self-employed, independent contractors, and gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.

The number of initial unemployment claims for unemployment compensation in the United States once again increased, to over one million. But the cumulative number of initial claims is still staggering, reaching 57.4 million workers by the end of last week.

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 1.1 million American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. They’re the third group to file for unemployment claims during the pandemic who are not going to benefit from the additional $600 benefit that was authorized in the CARES Act but which has now expired. Moreover, funds from the Paycheck Protection Program, which gave grants and loans to companies to keep workers on payroll, have been running out for many recipients.

I can’t pay my rent, electric bill, food, or car payments. I’m able to get the bare minimum with my allotted food stamps

said Sabrina Wickward Arce, a cosmetologist who is struggling to find a new job in Miami, Florida.

Here is a breakdown of each of the past twenty-two weeks:

• week ending on 21 March—3.31 million

• week ending on 28 March—6.87 million

• week ending on 4 April—6.62 million

• week ending on 11 April—5.24 million

• week ending on 18 April—4.44 million

• week ending on 25 April—3.87 million

• week ending on 2 May—3.18 million

• week ending on 9 May—2.69 million

• week ending on 16 May—2.45 million

• week ending on 23 May—2.12 million

• week ending on 30 May—1.90 million

• week ending on 6 June—1.57 million

• week ending on 13 June—1.54 million

• week ending on 20 June—1.48 million

• week ending on 27 June—1.41 million

• week ending on 4 July—1.31 million

• week ending on 11 July—1.31 million

• week ending on 18 July—1.42 million

• week ending on 25 July—1.44 million

• week ending on 1 August—1.19 million

• week ending on 8 August—971 thousand

• week ending on 8 August—1.11 million

While the number of continued claims for unemployment compensation has continued to fall from its peak, the total from the previous week (the series of continued claims lags initial claims by one week) was still 14.8 million workers. And we need to add to that an additional 11.2 million workers receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.* Therefore, approximately 26 million workers are jobless and receiving some form of unemployment compensation.

To put this number in perspective, consider the fact that the highest number of continued claims for unemployment compensation during the Second Great Depression was 6.6 million (at the end of May 2009), and in the week before the COVID Crisis there were only 1.8 million continued claims.

In the meantime, at least 1,295 new coronavirus deaths and 43,006 new cases were reported in the United States yesterday. As of this morning, more than 5.5 million Americans have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 173 thousand have died—with no end in sight.

The United States can therefore expect to experience new waves of business closures, which in turn will mean more American workers furloughed and laid off, and therefore steady streams of both initial unemployment claims and continued claims, in the weeks and months ahead.

———

*This is the special program for business owners, the self-employed, independent contractors, and gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.

COVID claims

The number of initial unemployment claims for unemployment compensation in the United States fell below one million for the first time since the beginning of the COVID crisis. But the cumulative number of initial claims is still staggering, reaching 56.3 million workers by the end of last week.

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 963 thousand American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. They’re the second group to file for unemployment claims during the pandemic who are not going to rise the additional $600 benefit that was authorized in the CARES Act.

Here is a breakdown of each of the past twenty-one weeks:

• week ending on 21 March—3.31 million

• week ending on 28 March—6.87 million

• week ending on 4 April—6.62 million

• week ending on 11 April—5.24 million

• week ending on 18 April—4.44 million

• week ending on 25 April—3.87 million

• week ending on 2 May—3.18 million

• week ending on 9 May—2.69 million

• week ending on 16 May—2.45 million

• week ending on 23 May—2.12 million

• week ending on 30 May—1.90 million

• week ending on 6 June—1.57 million

• week ending on 13 June—1.54 million

• week ending on 20 June—1.48 million

• week ending on 27 June—1.41 million

• week ending on 4 July—1.31 million

• week ending on 11 July—1.31 million

• week ending on 18 July—1.42 million

• week ending on 25 July—1.44 million

• week ending on 1 August—1.19 million

• week ending on 8 August—0.96 million

While the number of continued claims for unemployment compensation has continued to fall from its peak, the total from the previous week (the series of continued claims lags initial claims by one week) was still 15.5 million workers. And we need to add to that an additional 10.7 million workers receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance.* Therefore, as of 10 days ago, 26.2 million workers were receiving some form of unemployment compensation.

To understand the magnitude of this figure, we need to compare it to the number of continued claims in late May 2009 (6.6 million), the worst point of the so-called Great Recession. Right now, in the midst of the Pandemic Depression, the number of American workers receiving unemployment compensation is 4 times what it was at the nadir of the Second Great Depression.

daily-covid-cases-per-million-three-day-avg

In the meantime, at least 1,478 new coronavirus deaths and 54,187 new cases were reported in the United States on 12 August. As of this afternoon, more than 5,217,000 Americans have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 166,100 have died. The three-day rolling average of new cases per million people in the country was 153.4 compared to 32.5 cases for the world as a whole.

We can therefore expect to see new waves of business closures, which in turn will mean more American workers furloughed and laid off, and therefore steady streams of both initial unemployment claims and continued claims, in the weeks and months ahead.

*This is the special program for business owners, the self-employed, independent contractors, or gig workers not receiving other unemployment insurance.

initial claims-20

The total number of initial unemployment claims for unemployment compensation in the United State continues to rise.

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 1.19 million American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. That means initial jobless claims exceeded one million for the twentieth week in a row.

Here is a breakdown of each week:

• week ending on 21 March—3.31 million

• week ending on 28 March—6.87 million

• week ending on 4 April—6.62 million

• week ending on 11 April—5.24 million

• week ending on 18 April—4.44 million

• week ending on 25 April—3.87 million

• week ending on 2 May—3.18 million

• week ending on 9 May—2.69 million

• week ending on 16 May—2.45 million

• week ending on 23 May—2.12 million

• week ending on 30 May—1.90 million

• week ending on 6 June—1.57 million

• week ending on 13 June—1.54 million

• week ending on 20 June—1.48 million

• week ending on 27 June—1.41 million

• week ending on 4 July—1.31 million

• week ending on 11 July—1.31 million

• week ending on 18 July—1.42 million

• week ending on 25 July—1.44 million

• week ending on 1 August—1.19 million

All told, 55.3 million American workers have filed initial unemployment claims during the past twenty weeks.

To put that into  perspective, I produced the chart above comparing the cumulative totals of the initial unemployment claims for the current pandemic compared to two other relevant periods: the worst point of the Second Great Depression (from mid-January to late May 2009) and the weeks immediately preceding the current depression (from early November 2019 to late March 2020).

As readers can see, the differences are stunning: 12.6 million workers during the Second Great Depression, 4.4 million in the period just before the COVID crisis, and more than 55 million in the past twenty weeks.

And now that emergency federal benefits have expired, the unemployed—both continuing cases and newly laid-off workers—will not be receiving the $600-a-week supplement that helped them pay their bills through the spring and early summer.

daily-covid-cases-per-million-three-day-avg

In the meantime, at least 1,253 new coronavirus deaths and 53,726 new cases were reported in the United States. As of this morning, more than 4,832,400 Americans have been infected with the coronavirus and at least 158,500 have died. The three-day rolling average of new cases per million people in the country was 157 compared to 31 cases for the world as a whole.

We can therefore expect to see new waves of business closures, which in turn will mean more American workers furloughed and laid off, and therefore a steady stream of initial unemployment claims, in the weeks and months ahead.

As Vijay Prashad [ht: ja] has explained,

The incompetence of the Trump administration—mirroring the dangerous incompetence of Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil and Narendra Modi of India—coming on top of a destroyed public health system and a failed private sector testing establishment has condemned millions of people in the U.S. to catch the disease and pass it on. There is—thus far—no prospect of breaking the chain of infection in the United States.

initial claims-19

Initial unemployment claims in the United State continue to rise.

This morning, the U.S. Department of Labor (pdf) reported that, during the week ending last Saturday, another 1.43 million American workers filed initial claims for unemployment compensation. Last week, it was 1.42 million.

Here is a breakdown of each week:

• week ending on 21 March—3.31 million

• week ending on 28 March—6.87 million

• week ending on 4 April—6.62 million

• week ending on 11 April—5.24 million

• week ending on 18 April—4.44 million

• week ending on 25 April—3.87 million

• week ending on 2 May—3.18 million

• week ending on 9 May—2.69 million

• week ending on 16 May—2.45 million

• week ending on 23 May—2.12 million

• week ending on 30 May—1.90 million

• week ending on 6 June—1.57 million

• week ending on 13 June—1.54 million

• week ending on 20 June—1.48 million

• week ending on 27 June—1.41 million

• week ending on 4 July—1.31 million

• week ending on 11 July—1.31 million

• week ending on 18 July—1.42 million

• week ending on 25 July—1.43 million

All told, 54.1 million American workers have filed initial unemployment claims during the past nineteen weeks.

To put that into some kind of perspective, I produced the chart above comparing the cumulative totals of the initial unemployment claims for the current pandemic compared to two other relevant periods: the worst point of the Second Great Depression (from late January to late May 2009) and the weeks immediately preceding the current depression (from early November 2019 to late March 2020).

As readers can see in the chart above, the differences are stunning: 12 million workers during the Second Great Depression, 4.2 million in the period just before the COVID crisis, and more than 54 million in the past nineteen weeks.

GDP

The extraordinarily high numbers of initial claims should come as no surprise, given the decline in economic activity throughout the country. This morning, the Commerce Department reported that real Gross Domestic Product decreased at an annual rate of 32.9 percent in the second quarter of 2020 (corresponding to a drop of 9.5 percent from the first quarter). That is, by far, the most severe drop in the postwar period (the next most significant decline came in the first quarter of 1958, on the order of 10 percent on an annual basis).

daily-covid-cases-per-million-three-day-avg

In the meantime, many U.S. states continue to set daily records for new confirmed COVID-19 cases. Today, the three-day rolling average of new cases per million people in the country reached 194 compared to 32 cases for the world as a whole.

We can therefore expect to see new waves of business closures, which in turn will mean more American workers furloughed and laid off, and therefore a steady stream of initial unemployment claims, in the weeks and months ahead.

It is hard to imagine a worse combination to combat the fallout from the novel coronavirus pandemic than Republican governors, the administration of Donald Trump, the GOP-controlled Senate, and the basic institutions of U.S. capitalism.